In late September 2025, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was sentenced to five years in prison for criminal conspiracy. The ruling stunned European politics. He became the first postwar French president and the first former European Union head of state to face incarceration.
Media coverage was unequivocal. He was expected to report to La Santé prison in Paris on October 21, 2025. Commentators described the case as one of “exceptional gravity.” The sentence appeared severe and definitive.
On September 25, 2025, immediately after the sentencing, I tweeted:
This was not a cautious hedge. I directly stated that serving the full five-year sentence was “astrologically impossible.”
On October 14, 2025, after confirmation that he would begin serving time, I reinforced the prediction:
At the time, the legal narrative suggested a lengthy process. Appeals could take months. The Paris appeals court had up to 18 months to organize proceedings. The expectation was extended incarceration.
Then events moved swiftly.
On November 10, 2025 – barely three weeks after entering prison — Nicolas Sarkozy was released.
The release fell squarely within the window I had identified: “as early as November.”
The core prediction was clear and specific. I did not merely suggest appeals or legal complexity. I stated he would not serve the full five years. I stated twists and reversals would intervene. I identified a potential November release.
Within weeks, he walked free.
The timing aligned. The scale of reversal aligned. And the five-year incarceration that seemed definitive proved anything but.
