On November 29, 2025, when most commentary suggested the India–US trade deal would be wrapped up by the end of December 2025, I stated publicly that it would instead be formalised in January 2026 - most likely in the second half of the month.
At the time, negotiations were widely described as being in their final stages. Government sources indicated that only minor details remained. The prevailing expectation was clear: a December conclusion.
I diverged from that consensus and identified a different window.
On Monday morning, February 2, 2026, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed that the trade deal had been completed. Given that such announcements are typically made after formalisation, and considering it was declared on a Monday morning, the logical conclusion is that the agreement was finalised in the preceding week — squarely in the second half of January 2026.
Two months earlier, that was the precise period I had identified.
In matters of geopolitics and international trade, timing is everything. In this instance, the timing matched exactly.
